Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c7c…917f crypto 1385 markets active 6d ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,501 (-10%) realized −$3,501 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate49%674W / 699L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day128.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$733
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 384 -55.3% -59.5% 21% 17% -49.0%
≤30d 1373 -13.6% -21.8% 49% 35% -13.4%
≤90d 1373 -13.6% -21.8% 49% 35% -13.4%
all 1373 -13.6% -21.8% 49% 35% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover128.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 35% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 27% -21.7%
15% -36.1% 21% -29.2%
20% -42.4% 16% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$12 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,501
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses674 / 699
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1373 / 1385
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day128.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1373 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 27, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 31, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 5, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $22 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $22 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $50 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $15 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $34 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $10 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $9 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $9 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $9 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records