Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:30:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3C 0x3c78…c49f sports 66 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,346 (-25%) realized −$6,346 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%35W / 31L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$655
7 days−$30
14 days−$7,168
30 days−$7,168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$7,263
sports 38% +$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -17.4% -25.2% 55% 55% -9.7%
≤30d 66 -15.8% -23.8% 53% 53% -35.0%
≤90d 66 -15.8% -23.8% 53% 53% -35.0%
all 66 -15.8% -23.8% 53% 53% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 53% -35.0%
10% -31.1% 53% -41.2%
15% -37.7% 38% -46.9%
20% -43.8% 24% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$164 vs −$417 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,346
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses35 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage14d
Avg bet$386
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $201 −$195 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $161 −$158 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $375 +$112 +30%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $46 +$28 +60%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $301 +$74 +24%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 25 $394 −$22 -6%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $503 −$503 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $134 +$65 +48%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $508 +$245 +48%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $425 +$162 +38%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $437 −$437 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $158 −$158 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $356 −$356 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $598 +$264 +44%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $305 +$147 +48%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $85 +$80 +95%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $88 +$24 +28%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 23 $74 −$74 -100%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $357 +$157 +44%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $3,588 +$1,005 +28%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $118 +$41 +34%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $93 +$26 +28%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $288 +$99 +34%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $249 −$249 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $97 +$46 +47%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $100 +$64 +64%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $151 −$151 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $42 +$22 +53%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $178 +$112 +63%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $507 −$507 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $577 +$320 +56%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 +$16 +31%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $215 +$147 +68%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$112 +55%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $9 +$11 +121%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$143 +143%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $117 +$80 +68%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $197 +$48 +24%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 +$35 +43%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $59 +$31 +53%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 +$32 +112%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $201 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $161 2h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $73 6h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $375 7h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $375 8h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $301 9h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $25 11h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $46 11h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 67¢ $372 24h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 69¢ $394 25h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $503 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $199 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $134 29h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $753 29h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Brazil O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $508 31h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $587 31h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $425 35h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $437 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $862 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $598 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 57¢ $158 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $356 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $452 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $305 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $165 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $85 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $112 3d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $514 3d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $88 3d
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 68¢ $357 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 135 history records