Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:19:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3C 0x3c76…d4ee other 592 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 136d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$35,142 (+6%) realized +$34,645 · open +$497
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate95%541W / 29L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$924per market
Trades / day22.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$5,066now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 136d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 36% +$6,939
world 29% +$1,795
politics 25% −$685
tech 4% +$305
economics 3% +$20
sports 1% +$95
crypto 1% +$11
finance 0% +$46
culture 0% +$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.7% -10.2% 93% 7% -6.9%
≤30d 86 +4.7% -5.3% 95% 8% -8.8%
≤90d 355 +1.1% -8.5% 95% 7% -9.1%
all 570 +6.2% -3.9% 95% 8% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.9% 8% -8.2%
10% -13.1% 5% -17.0%
15% ← realistic here -21.5% 4% -25.0%
20% -29.2% 3% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$847) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$77 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.74 per $1 lost it wins $4.74
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$5,066
Realized+$34,645
Unrealized+$497
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses541 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions37
Markets (closed)570 / 592
History coverage136d ⚠
Avg bet$924
Trades / day22.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 570 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $1,210 $1,283 +$73 (+6%)
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 94¢ $410 $472 +$62 (+15%)
Will Kamala Harris announce a 2028 run for President by June 30? No 82¢ 99¢ $343 $415 +$71 (+21%)
New COVID variant of concern before 2027? No 80¢ 82¢ $384 $396 +$12 (+3%)
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $388 $388 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 81¢ 90¢ $236 $262 +$27 (+11%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 63¢ 90¢ $184 $259 +$75 (+41%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 97¢ $130 $194 +$64 (+49%)
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? No 83¢ 100¢ $152 $183 +$31 (+20%)
MH370 underwater wreckage found by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $120 $123 +$3 (+2%)
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $117 $122 +$5 (+4%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 83¢ 90¢ $83 $90 +$8 (+9%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Yes 70¢ 79¢ $70 $79 +$9 (+13%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 71¢ 94¢ $57 $76 +$19 (+34%)
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? No 92¢ 78¢ $84 $72 −$12 (-15%)
James Comey in jail by June 30? No 63¢ 98¢ $41 $65 +$23 (+56%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 87¢ 96¢ $52 $57 +$5 (+10%)
Luigi Mangione tried before 2027? Yes 85¢ 81¢ $56 $54 −$3 (-5%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $42 $50 +$7 (+17%)
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? No 71¢ 82¢ $42 $49 +$7 (+17%)
Kristi Noem impeached in 2026? No 89¢ 87¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? No 89¢ 100¢ $43 $48 +$5 (+11%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 90¢ 95¢ $45 $47 +$2 (+5%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $34 $39 +$6 (+17%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 75¢ 83¢ $24 $26 +$3 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $32 $0 +1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? Jun 17 $23 $0 +2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $16 −$8 -50%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 17 $407 +$3 +1%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 16? Jun 16 $1,173 +$15 +1%
Who will finish higher: Alonso or Stroll? Jun 16 $18 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Perez or Bottas? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Bortoleto or Hulkenberg? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Ocon or Bearman? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Lindblad or Lawson? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Piastri? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Verstappen? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Piastri? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Russell? Jun 16 $15 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Verstappen or Russell? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Norris or Russell? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Russell? Jun 16 $9 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Hamilton or Piastri? Jun 16 $24 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Piastri or Russell? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Leclerc or Hamilton? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Who will finish higher: Colapinto or Gasly? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 15? Jun 15 $186 +$13 +7%
Will Olivia Rodrigo have a #1 hit in the US in June? Jun 13 $500 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 12 $147 +$75 +51%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $37 +$19 +50%
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Jun 12 $935 +$5 +1%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 +$9 +400%
Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin in 2026? Jun 06 $86 +$1 +1%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 06 $148 +$47 +32%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 22, 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 24, 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 +1%
Services Down Parlay Jun 05 $59 +$7 +12%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 23, 2026? Jun 05 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on May 21, 2026? Jun 05 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 04 $288 $0 +0%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 1? Jun 03 $156 $0 +0%
Will President Trump sign 7 pieces of legislation into law in May? Jun 02 $256 $0 +0%
Will President Trump sign 8 or more pieces of legislation into law in Jun 02 $6,044 +$10 +0%
Will President Trump sign 5 pieces of legislation into law in May? Jun 02 $90 $0 +0%
Will President Trump sign 6 pieces of legislation into law in May? Jun 02 $374 $0 +0%
Will President Trump sign less than 5 pieces of legislation into law i Jun 02 $1,808 +$7 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Grande" in May? Jun 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Kennedy Center" or "Trump-Kennedy Center" in May Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Plan" in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Time" in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Accord" or "Trump Peace" in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Trump Pool" or "Trump Lake" or "Trump Pond" in May? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 01 $199 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a UK social media ban take effect by December 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $23 1h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $33 1h
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? BUY Yes 100¢ $388 1h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $23 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 14h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? SELL Yes 95¢ $24 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 92¢ $9 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 62¢ $16 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30? BUY Yes 93¢ $23 16h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 16h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? BUY No 89¢ $5 18h
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 87¢ $22 22h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 75¢ $19 22h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 22h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? BUY No 90¢ $14 24h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? BUY No 91¢ $9 25h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $204 25h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $142 25h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 25h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $8 25h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $142 25h
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $306 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,066.29 · official $5,069.89 (match) · 3500 history records