Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3c75…ab58 crypto 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+9%) realized +$26 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate66%21W / 11L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day38.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 62% -2.5%
≤30d 32 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 62% -2.5%
≤90d 32 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 62% -2.5%
all 32 -1.1% -10.5% 66% 62% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 62% -2.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 47% -11.9%
15% -26.9% 41% -20.4%
20% -34.1% 25% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.37 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses21 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage1d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day38.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 54¢ 62¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 +$9 +36%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$5 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$5 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +57%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $12 +$4 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$7 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 26 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET Jun 26 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$4 +105%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$2 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -83%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$3 +50%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 26 $3 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 20m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $8 26m
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $20 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $15 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $36 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $12 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $16 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $3 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.97 · official $11.88 · 61 history records