Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c75…c91f crypto 62 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$66 (+8%) realized +$95 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate30%17W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$168
other 22% −$125
crypto 4% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -28.5% -35.3% 30% 25% -2.0%
≤30d 56 -28.5% -35.3% 30% 25% -2.0%
≤90d 56 -28.5% -35.3% 30% 25% -2.0%
all 56 -28.5% -35.3% 30% 25% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.3% 25% -2.0%
10% ← realistic here -41.5% 25% -11.4%
15% -47.1% 20% -20.0%
20% -52.3% 18% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -51% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$8 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized+$95
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses17 / 39
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)56 / 62
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Yes 26¢ 28¢ $48 $52 +$5 (+10%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $31 −$2 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Under 22¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $99 +$30 +31%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $85 +$76 +89%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $21 +$5 +27%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $52 +$104 +199%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $76 −$75 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $27 +$80 +291%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$5 +474%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $29 −$2 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +27%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? Jun 17 $19 −$18 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $31 +$68 +223%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 26¢ $49 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 22¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $99 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H BUY Yes 18¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa 2nd Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $161 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $49 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 52¢ $35 7h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 7h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $51 11h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 11h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 12h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 97¢ $156 20h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 21¢ $2 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $1 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 21h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $51 22h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 25h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $76 25h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 13¢ $19 25h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes $26 25h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes $26 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $27 34h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 11¢ $27 34h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 40h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 40h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $132.70 · official $132.84 (match) · 100 history records