Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:58:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c72…681d
crypto · 361 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$40 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$39 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses249 / 111
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)360 / 361
History coverage99d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 1 History 360 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$7
14 days−$8
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 55¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 73% −$13
sports 8% −$5
world 7% −$4
finance 5% −$1
other 4% −$13
politics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 +3.4% -6.4% 78% 75% -10.8%
≤30d 238 +0.6% -8.9% 74% 65% -11.8%
≤90d 341 -4.9% -13.9% 69% 53% -14.4%
all 360 -5.0% -14.0% 69% 52% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 52% -14.2%
10% -22.3% 18% -22.4%
15% -29.8% 7% -29.9%
20% -36.7% 3% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.94 · official $0.66 (match) · 965 history records