Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c70…3745 crypto 1747 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$89 (+1%) realized −$182 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate93%1679W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$225
14 days−$225
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$93
other 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 267 -17.9% -25.7% 75% 16% -25.9%
≤30d 267 -17.9% -25.7% 75% 16% -25.9%
≤90d 1806 -2.0% -11.3% 93% 6% -11.3%
all 1806 -2.0% -11.3% 93% 6% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 6% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 2% -19.8%
15% -27.6% 1% -27.5%
20% -34.7% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$182
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1679 / 127
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1806 / 1747
History coverage63d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1806 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - April 21, 10AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - April 22, 2PM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 94¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12AM ET Up 97¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 11AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records