Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:16:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c6f…8ff9 crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,344 (-14%) realized −$2,344 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%15W / 22L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$1,207
other 15% −$1,406
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-36.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -30.2% -36.9% 41% 38% -23.9%
≤30d 37 -30.2% -36.9% 41% 38% -23.9%
≤90d 37 -30.2% -36.9% 41% 38% -23.9%
all 37 -30.2% -36.9% 41% 38% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.9% 38% -23.9%
10% ← realistic here -42.9% 38% -31.2%
15% -48.4% 35% -37.9%
20% -53.5% 32% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$598) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -48% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$407 vs −$396 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses15 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage6d
Avg bet$452
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $233 −$226 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$47 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $1,386 −$1,350 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 18 $688 +$691 +100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $523 −$500 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $735 +$506 +69%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $602 +$289 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $655 +$1,033 +158%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $528 −$505 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $637 +$726 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $598 +$316 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $521 −$500 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $461 −$444 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $593 +$360 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $371 −$371 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $902 −$874 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $429 −$418 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $460 +$557 +121%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $355 +$87 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $367 −$350 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $720 +$449 +62%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $355 −$350 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $751 +$461 +61%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $465 −$443 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $351 −$334 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $355 −$343 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $266 −$250 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $352 −$343 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $515 +$360 +70%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $258 −$250 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $303 −$303 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $118 −$113 -96%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $238 +$182 +76%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $146 +$89 +61%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $207 −$200 -97%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $212 −$205 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $27 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $154 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $49 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $153 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $154 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $154 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $154 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $112 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $659 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $6 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $223 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $294 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $51 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $15 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $173 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $345 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $53 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $31 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $31 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $310 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $206 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $32 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records