Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3C 0x3c6f…902f sports 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$272 (+2%) realized +$261 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate55%72W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$51
14 days+$51
30 days+$294
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$852
world 30% −$30
other 26% +$554
politics 7% +$28
tech 3% +$173
finance 2% −$106
economics 1% +$12
crypto 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -28.8% -35.6% 50% 25% -6.4%
≤30d 35 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 49% -1.7%
≤90d 63 -5.7% -14.6% 60% 43% -2.1%
all 131 -5.4% -14.4% 55% 37% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 37% -7.8%
10% -22.6% 28% -16.6%
15% -30.1% 20% -24.7%
20% -37.0% 15% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$47 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized+$261
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses72 / 59
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions3
Markets (closed)131 / 134
History coverage220d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 67¢ 71¢ $273 $291 +$18 (+7%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Yes 15¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $203 +$155 +76%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 +$5 +10%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $154 −$104 -67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $333 +$171 +51%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 20 $206 +$148 +72%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 19 $100 +$9 +9%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $174 −$172 -99%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $138 −$138 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $98 +$127 +131%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $103 −$101 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $101 +$31 +30%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $132 +$82 +62%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $201 +$62 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -99%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $101 +$68 +67%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $203 +$63 +31%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 10 $98 −$17 -17%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $32 +$68 +210%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $101 +$31 +30%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 +$27 +26%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $101 +$101 +100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 08 $20 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 08 $18 +$2 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 08 $21 +$4 +18%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 08 $21 +$9 +46%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 08 $23 +$17 +76%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 08 $98 +$2 +2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 24 $20 −$2 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 24 $23 −$22 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $100 +$15 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $212 +$43 +20%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 08 $160 +$10 +6%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, May 04 $1 −$1 -83%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $90 −$35 -38%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by April 30? May 01 $226 +$178 +79%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $27 −$2 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $73 +$26 +36%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Beşiktaş win the Süper Lig? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 17 $101 −$28 -28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 13 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $92 −$6 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $203 1h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL Yes 97¢ $103 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $357 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $203 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 66¢ $132 9h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $53 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $15 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $7 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? SELL No 67¢ $66 21h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 67¢ $80 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 67¢ $109 28h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 67¢ $3 29h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 67¢ $3 29h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 67¢ $10 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 67¢ $67 30h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 67¢ $9 30h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 94¢ $100 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 47¢ $56 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $51 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No $30 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $5 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 42¢ $15 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 100¢ $505 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 66¢ $101 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 66¢ $101 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 65¢ $101 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $354 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 62¢ $30 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $51 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $103 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $489.46 · official $489.46 (match) · 478 history records