Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c6b…4b2a world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$28 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$1
world 28% −$14
politics 3% −$6
sports 0% −$7
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-18.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -16.0% -24.0% 33% 17% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -6.4% -15.3% 38% 5% -10.8%
≤90d 26 -5.4% -14.4% 31% 4% -10.3%
all 35 -9.8% -18.4% 37% 3% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.4% 3% -10.7%
10% -26.2% 0% -19.3%
15% -33.3% 0% -27.1%
20% -39.9% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage526d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $31 −$2 -7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 11 $104 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $67 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $158 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $16 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $22 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $66 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $76 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $32 −$12 -38%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $30 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $40 $0 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $234 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $63 −$3 -5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $238 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $237 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $262 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Feb 25 $2 $0 -5%
Will another individual win the Romanian Presidential election? Feb 18 $3 $0 -12%
Trump inauguration gets more viewers than Biden's? Jan 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Oilers vs. Bruins Jan 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $29 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 26¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $33 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $3 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $28 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $31 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 45¢ $14 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $14 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $33 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $33 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 8d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $16 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $16 8d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $8 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.91 · official $0.00 (match) · 153 history records