Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3C 0x3c6a…655b crypto 109 markets active 5d ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$173 (-10%) realized −$168 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%56W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$152
other 3% −$34
sports 1% +$3
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -55.9% -60.1% 29% 29% -24.9%
≤30d 7 -55.9% -60.1% 29% 29% -24.9%
≤90d 7 -55.9% -60.1% 29% 29% -24.9%
all 107 -4.8% -13.9% 52% 50% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 50% -18.7%
10% -22.1% 45% -26.5%
15% -29.6% 33% -33.6%
20% -36.5% 28% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$14 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$168
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses56 / 51
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage117d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $54 −$18 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -96%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-02? Mar 02 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 02 $12 +$6 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 02 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 02 $7 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 02 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Mar 02 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 02 $5 −$3 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Mar 02 $12 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Mar 02 $39 −$33 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Mar 02 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Mar 02 $8 +$8 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Mar 02 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 16 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 16 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 16 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Feb 16 $8 −$8 -99%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 16 $2 −$2 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 17? Feb 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Feb 16 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 16 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 16 $6 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 16 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 16 $1 +$2 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 16 $3 −$2 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Feb 16 $9 −$3 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Feb 16 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Feb 16 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Feb 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Feb 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Feb 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 15 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 15 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Feb 15 $3 +$3 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 15 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $2 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 28¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.13 · official $15.13 (match) · 304 history records