Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
3C 0x3c69…b1de sports 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$4,139 (+38%) realized +$3,249 · open +$890
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate68%17W / 8L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$2,723now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$3,942
other 13% +$1,117
world 3% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 25 +50.6% +36.3% 68% 64% +38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.3% 64% +38.0%
10% +23.2% 60% +24.8%
15% +11.3% 56% +12.7%
20% +0.4% 48% +1.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late +48% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$359 vs −$247 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.1 per $1 lost it wins $3.1
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$2,723
Realized+$3,249
Unrealized+$890
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses17 / 8
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage590d
Avg bet$376
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Over 59¢ 100¢ $1,180 $1,999 +$819 (+69%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 59¢ 80¢ $295 $398 +$102 (+35%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 48¢ 44¢ $357 $326 −$31 (-9%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score No 47¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Oct 08 $357 +$228 +64%
Cubs vs. Brewers Oct 08 $200 +$157 +79%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jan 21 $215 −$215 -100%
Bulls vs. Knicks Nov 15 $68 −$68 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks Nov 13 $50 +$18 +35%
Kings vs. Spurs Nov 12 $1,018 +$1,349 +133%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Nov 11 $588 −$588 -100%
Rockets vs. Pistons Nov 11 $100 +$9 +9%
Knicks vs. Pacers Nov 11 $55 +$93 +170%
Heat vs. Timberwolves Nov 11 $196 +$504 +257%
Giants vs. Panthers Nov 10 $372 −$372 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-10? Nov 10 $350 +$650 +186%
Will Southampton win on 2024-11-09? Nov 10 $183 −$183 -100%
Will Fulham win on 2024-11-09? Nov 10 $19 +$32 +163%
Will Wolves win on 2024-11-09? Nov 10 $260 +$240 +92%
Suns vs. Mavericks Nov 09 $172 +$212 +124%
Nets vs. Celtics Nov 09 $388 +$72 +18%
Pelicans vs. Magic Nov 09 $497 +$203 +41%
Pacers vs. Hornets Nov 09 $294 +$796 +271%
Bucks vs. Knicks Nov 09 $44 −$44 -100%
Jazz vs. Bucks Nov 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Bulls Nov 08 $1,193 −$402 -34%
Will Athletic Bilbao beat Ludogorets? Nov 08 $324 +$276 +85%
Warriors vs. Celtics Nov 07 $486 +$1,134 +233%
76ers vs. Suns Nov 06 $350 +$136 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1,195 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL No 48¢ $1,206 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $867 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $21 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $66 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $43 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $143 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 47¢ $29 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $299 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 49¢ $122 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 47¢ $235 2h
Blue Jays vs. Yankees BUY Yankees 61¢ $357 252d
Cubs vs. Brewers BUY Brewers 56¢ $200 254d
Lakers vs. Clippers BUY Lakers 36¢ $215 513d
Bulls vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 73¢ $28 581d
Bulls vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 73¢ $40 581d
Raptors vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 74¢ $50 582d
Kings vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 43¢ $1,018 582d
Heat vs. Timberwolves BUY Heat 28¢ $150 583d
Knicks vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 37¢ $54 583d
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 49¢ $588 583d
Heat vs. Timberwolves BUY Heat 28¢ $39 583d
Heat vs. Timberwolves BUY Heat 28¢ $1 583d
Rockets vs. Pistons BUY Rockets 92¢ $100 583d
Heat vs. Timberwolves BUY Heat 28¢ $0 583d
Knicks vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 35¢ $1 583d
Heat vs. Timberwolves BUY Heat 28¢ $5 583d
Giants vs. Panthers BUY Giants 71¢ $29 584d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,722.75 · official $2,722.75 (match) · 132 history records