Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:31:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3C 0x3c69…54d1 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$173
7 days−$154
14 days−$152
30 days−$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$169
crypto 38% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-37.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -25.3% -32.4% 67% 0% -29.3%
≤30d 5 -14.6% -22.7% 80% 0% -21.7%
≤90d 5 -14.6% -22.7% 80% 0% -21.7%
all 12 -31.4% -37.9% 42% 8% -22.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.9% 8% -22.7%
10% -43.9% 8% -30.1%
15% -49.3% 8% -36.8%
20% -54.3% 8% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$27 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage133d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $203 −$175 -86%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$19 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $200 +$3 +2%
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Feb 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Feb 15 $1 +$3 +296%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 12¢ $29 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 81¢ $203 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 29h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $201 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $200 10d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? BUY No 98¢ $200 22d
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? BUY No 99¢ $30 22d
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY No 22¢ $5 93d
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY No 17¢ $5 93d
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? BUY No 10¢ $5 93d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 132d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 132d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.27 · official $30.27 (match) · 19 history records