Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:52:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
3C 0x3c69…c149 sports 50 markets active 3h ago coverage 357d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL −$6,635 (-11%) realized −$7,828 · open +$1,193
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%24W / 19L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,176per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$299est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$4,634now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$188
14 days+$1,438
30 days+$1,434
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$5,859
other 6% −$1,702
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 50% -3.1%
≤30d 7 +13.5% +2.6% 71% 43% +13.1%
≤90d 7 +13.5% +2.6% 71% 43% +13.1%
all 43 +47.9% +33.8% 56% 49% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.8% 49% -25.1%
10% +21.0% 47% -32.3%
15% +9.3% 37% -38.8%
20% -1.4% 33% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$1,616) neutral
Persistence
early +93% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
18.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$634 vs −$1,261 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

357d coverage
Net worth$4,634
Realized−$7,828
Unrealized+$1,193
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses24 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$299
Open positions7
Markets (closed)43 / 50
History coverage357d
Avg bet$1,176
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 31¢ 41¢ $2,506 $3,378 +$872 (+35%)
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? Yes 11¢ 28¢ $296 $718 +$423 (+143%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $500 $401 −$99 (-20%)
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in June? Yes 77¢ 91¢ $40 $47 +$7 (+19%)
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $47 $34 −$13 (-27%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 77¢ 86¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+12%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? Jun 18 $2,164 +$46 +2%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 14 $494 +$143 +29%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 10 $1,117 +$956 +86%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $521 +$695 +133%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 09 $719 +$6 +1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 08 $720 −$408 -57%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in November? Dec 18 $4,728 −$4,727 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November? Dec 18 $360 −$360 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in November? Dec 17 $3,280 −$3,280 -100%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in October? Nov 18 $908 +$21 +2%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $100 +$92 +92%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 09 $300 +$468 +156%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $690 +$951 +138%
Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5 Nov 08 $800 −$800 -100%
West Ham vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 Nov 08 $400 +$402 +100%
Tottenham vs. Manchester United: O/U 3.5 Nov 08 $192 −$192 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $200 −$200 -100%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 03 $150 +$460 +307%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $2,209 +$553 +25%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $528 −$528 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $4,000 −$4,000 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 01 $40 +$11 +26%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2025? Nov 01 $1,616 −$1,616 -100%
Will Anyone’s Legend win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 31 $212 +$150 +70%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $500 +$214 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Movistar KOI (BO3) Oct 25 $5,318 +$651 +12%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.0% in September? Oct 24 $5,344 +$4,535 +85%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September? Oct 23 $3,501 −$2,617 -75%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in September? Oct 23 $461 −$265 -57%
LoL: Gen.G vs Top Esports (BO3) Oct 23 $553 +$146 +26%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Team Secret Whales (BO3) Oct 23 $997 +$755 +76%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-09-28? Sep 29 $30 +$38 +127%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G Sep 28 $201 +$91 +45%
LoL: T1 vs DK Sep 18 $570 +$430 +75%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.9% in August? Sep 11 $543 +$637 +117%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% or more in August? Sep 07 $555 −$15 -3%
League of Legends: Dplus KIA vs. BNK FEARX Sep 04 $220 −$220 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in August? Aug 21 $2,644 −$2,644 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in July? Aug 12 $2,448 +$2,754 +112%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in July? Aug 03 $550 −$550 -100%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in June? Jul 10 $1,484 −$1,484 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? SELL No 86¢ $258 2h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 76¢ $728 2h
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? SELL No 86¢ $746 3h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? SELL Yes 20¢ $415 5h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? SELL Yes 23¢ $509 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $798 15h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 16h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 16h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $187 16h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 16h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 22¢ $232 16h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 16h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 42¢ $122 16h
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? SELL Yes 28¢ $187 24h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 42¢ $86 24h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $44 24h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $85 24h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 17¢ $33 24h
Will annual inflation be 3.9% in June? BUY Yes 16¢ $308 24h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 43¢ $53 32h
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? BUY No 87¢ $240 35h
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 35h
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 35h
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 35h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $125 39h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 41h
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? BUY Yes 42¢ $7 41h
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $7 41h
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $29 41h
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,634.13 · official $4,634.13 (match) · 1065 history records