Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:45:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c67…92ac
other · 64 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$23 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses15 / 48
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage214d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%
Chart Positions 1 History 63 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Morocco 69¢ 92¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+33%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 14 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 14 $6 +$4 +63%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? May 10 $2 +$8 +488%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 10 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Jan 16 $2 +$8 +335%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Jan 16 $3 +$7 +289%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 22 $2 +$8 +342%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 18 $6 +$4 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 08 $4 +$6 +150%
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Dec 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 04 $3 +$7 +251%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Nov 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 30 $2 +$8 +452%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 20 Nov 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $2 +$8 +521%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 20 Nov 26 $2 +$8 +492%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 26 $1 +$9 +740%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 56% −$20
crypto 19% $0
tech 19% $0
sports 6% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $10 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY No 63¢ $7 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 42h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 30d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 30d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 34d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 34d
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 148d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 148d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 148d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 148d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY Yes 9¢ $1 169d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY Yes 23¢ $2 169d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 BUY Yes 66¢ $7 169d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY Yes 17¢ $2 173d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY Yes 28¢ $3 173d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY Yes 26¢ $3 173d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY Yes 19¢ $2 173d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 BUY Yes 4¢ $1 173d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes 5¢ $1 177d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes 23¢ $2 177d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes 52¢ $5 177d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes 15¢ $1 177d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $50 177d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY Yes 26¢ $3 183d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY Yes 56¢ $6 183d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 BUY Yes 12¢ $1 183d
Will d4vd be the #1 searched person on Google this year? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 191d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 BUY Yes 17¢ $2 191d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 50% -22.1%
≤30d 2 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 50% -22.1%
≤90d 7 +36.6% +23.6% 43% 43% -17.0%
all 63 -7.8% -16.6% 24% 21% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 21% -18.8%
10% -24.6% 21% -26.6%
15% -31.9% 21% -33.7%
20% -38.5% 21% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.26 · official $13.26 (match) · 79 history records