Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:08:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c64…f957 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$215 (-6%) realized −$215 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$308
world 31% +$7
crypto 10% +$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.8% -6.1% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤30d 4 -23.8% -31.0% 75% 0% -54.6%
≤90d 31 +6.8% -3.4% 55% 23% -15.5%
all 31 +6.8% -3.4% 55% 23% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 23% -15.5%
10% -12.6% 19% -23.6%
15% -21.1% 19% -31.0%
20% -28.8% 19% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$68 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$215
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage81d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $63 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $61 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $59 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 31 $186 −$186 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $48 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $247 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 08 $172 $0 -0%
Will Timothée Chalamet be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 08 $10 −$5 -51%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Anna Wintour be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 08 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $59 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 03 $78 +$72 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 29 $13 −$10 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 29 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 29 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 24 $63 +$45 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $105 −$47 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 21 $125 −$105 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $45 −$43 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $28 −$20 -72%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $30 +$170 +567%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 12 $51 +$51 +99%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 09 $43 +$57 +133%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $430 −$313 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $117 +$249 +212%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Mar 31 $429 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Mar 31 $499 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 29? Mar 29 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $64 59m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $61 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $61 9d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 14d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $186 34d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $137 38d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 38d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $111 38d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $111 38d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $172 38d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $172 38d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 43d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 43d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 43d
Will Anna Wintour be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? BUY No 84¢ $9 43d
Will Timothée Chalamet be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 43d
Will Timothée Chalamet be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 43d
Will Timothée Chalamet be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $78 46d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 56d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $63 56d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 57d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 57d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $13 57d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 57d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 58d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 58d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $45 58d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $58 58d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $48 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.63 · official $63.63 (match) · 161 history records