Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:56:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c62…9f05 other 11 markets active 6h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+7%) realized +$12 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +99% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +66% what you keep after slip
Net edge+66%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$20
crypto 14% −$20
sports 7% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+79.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +98.7% +79.8% 40% 40% +0.3%
≤30d 10 +98.7% +79.8% 40% 40% +0.3%
≤90d 10 +98.7% +79.8% 40% 40% +0.3%
all 10 +98.7% +79.8% 40% 40% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +79.8% 40% +0.3%
10% +62.6% 40% -9.3%
15% +46.9% 40% -18.0%
20% +32.5% 40% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +99% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$9 +180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$7 +146%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$50 +982%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 17¢ $5 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 29¢ $5 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $5 6h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $5 29h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 18¢ $5 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $5 29h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $5 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $5 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $5 29h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $20 41h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 41h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 6¢ $5 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.10 · official $39.10 (match) · 20 history records