Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:03:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3C 0x3c5c…174e other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7,120 (+17%) realized +$7,091 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%15W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$1,519per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$13,029now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,629
7 days+$5,685
14 days+$6,840
30 days+$6,840
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$5,083
sports 14% +$2,787
world 2% −$1,000
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +17.5% +6.3% 71% 71% +17.3%
≤30d 24 +14.6% +3.7% 62% 62% +11.6%
≤90d 24 +14.6% +3.7% 62% 62% +11.6%
all 24 +14.6% +3.7% 62% 62% +11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.7% 62% +11.6%
10% -6.3% 62% +0.9%
15% -15.3% 58% -8.8%
20% -23.6% 46% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,017) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,056 vs −$1,000 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$13,029
Realized+$7,091
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses15 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions4
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1,519
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10,000 $9,922 −$78 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,122 +$122 (+12%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $1,000 $993 −$7 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $1,014 +$873 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5,060 +$3,273 +65%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,008 +$380 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,017 +$1,364 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,013 +$712 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,008 +$380 +38%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,021 +$1,056 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,007 +$326 +32%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,014 −$1,000 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,010 −$1,000 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,011 −$1,000 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1,014 +$838 +83%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,021 −$1,000 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,011 +$552 +55%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1,018 +$526 +52%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,012 −$1,000 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,016 +$915 +90%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1,022 +$2,550 +250%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1,019 +$1,613 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $10,108 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,009 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,010 21h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $1,014 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $5,060 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,008 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $1,017 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $1,007 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,008 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,021 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,007 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,014 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,010 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,021 7d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,019 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,022 7d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 54¢ $1,014 7d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 64¢ $1,544 7d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1,022 8d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 8d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 41¢ $1,018 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,931 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 9d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1,022 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,019 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,029.25 · official $13,028.27 (match) · 44 history records