Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:29:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
3C 0x3c5c…2070 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$14 (+19%) realized +$13 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%4W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$15
crypto 20% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)+6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +32.9% +20.3% 11% 11% +31.2%
≤30d 28 +32.9% +20.3% 11% 11% +31.2%
≤90d 35 +17.5% +6.3% 11% 11% +0.9%
all 35 +17.5% +6.3% 11% 11% +0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.3% 11% +0.9%
10% -3.9% 11% -8.7%
15% -13.2% 11% -17.6%
20% -21.7% 11% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$2 · ×8.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses4 / 31
Open positions4
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage71d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+30%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 15¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+20%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$23 +1116%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 +$8 +784%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 +$31 +1521%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 06 $1 +$3 +289%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 9h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 28h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 28h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 3 Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 33h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 33h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 33h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 41h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $2 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.54 · official $9.54 (match) · 48 history records