Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c5b…a736 crypto 443 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,297 (-25%) realized −$12,280 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%230W / 198L
Whale WR23%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,093now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 138d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$735
other 33% −$2,020
sports 17% −$520
world 4% −$1,744
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -10.9% -19.4% 48% 43% -16.2%
≤30d 42 -10.9% -19.4% 48% 43% -16.2%
≤90d 176 -14.1% -22.3% 51% 43% -18.5%
all 428 -6.9% -15.7% 54% 44% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 44% -19.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 31% -26.9%
15% -31.2% 19% -33.9%
20% -37.9% 12% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 23% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$58 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$1,093
Realized−$12,280
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses230 / 198
Whale WR (big bets)23%
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions15
Markets (closed)428 / 443
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$109
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $166 $184 +$19 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $168 $138 −$30 (-18%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Qatar 49¢ 48¢ $80 $78 −$2 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 36¢ 36¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 41¢ 40¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$38 +38%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$52 -51%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$2 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 −$300 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$71 -70%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$4 -18%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $38 −$5 -13%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $59 +$26 +43%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$34 +34%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 +$44 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$67 -67%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$89 -88%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 −$16 -61%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $130 +$32 +25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$50 +49%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $39 +$3 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 $0 -1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$30 -58%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $101 +$31 +30%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $166 +$34 +20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $300 +$15 +5%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$80 -79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$56 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $147 −$81 -55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$95 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $553 +$126 +23%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $101 +$74 +73%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 −$39 -77%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $55 −$27 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $43 −$18 -43%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $303 +$71 +24%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $30 +$23 +76%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winner Apr 27 $52 −$52 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $39 +$13 +32%
LoL: French Flair vs BIG (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Apr 07 $185 −$142 -77%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GLYPH (BO3) - BLAST Slam Southeast Asia Closed Apr 03 $334 −$139 -42%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs GLYPH - Game 2 Winner Apr 03 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall Apr 03 $66 −$33 -50%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs 1win - Game 2 Winner Apr 02 $73 −$48 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 48¢ $51 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $101 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $101 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10 1h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 48¢ $30 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $25 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 24¢ $23 13h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 29¢ $27 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $13 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 13h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $51 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 16h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 16h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $28 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $11 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $90 22h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 14¢ $30 26h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 14¢ $0 26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 46¢ $51 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,092.98 · official $1,092.99 (match) · 3500 history records