Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:55:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3C
0x3c59…1766
world · 137 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$59,797 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$73,902 · open +$3,647
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$91,760
Realized−$73,902
Unrealized+$3,647
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses61 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$429
Open positions22
Markets (closed)193 / 137
History coverage91d
Avg bet$6,064
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 22 History 193 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$70,643
7 days−$82,744
14 days−$91,349
30 days−$97,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 31¢ 38¢ $25,395 $31,184 +$5,790 (+23%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 69¢ 81¢ $21,649 $25,667 +$4,018 (+19%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 37¢ 52¢ $6,818 $9,566 +$2,748 (+40%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 28¢ $11,069 $8,281 −$2,788 (-25%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 70¢ 83¢ $2,606 $3,078 +$472 (+18%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 42¢ 18¢ $5,610 $2,376 −$3,234 (-58%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 48¢ 32¢ $3,486 $2,362 −$1,124 (-32%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 25¢ 43¢ $833 $1,433 +$600 (+72%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 57¢ 74¢ $951 $1,240 +$289 (+30%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $3,395 $973 −$2,422 (-71%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 36¢ 46¢ $742 $943 +$202 (+27%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 23¢ 16¢ $1,022 $733 −$289 (-28%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 49¢ 74¢ $446 $679 +$232 (+52%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 23¢ 22¢ $648 $647 −$1 (-0%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 13¢ 39¢ $200 $613 +$413 (+207%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 10¢ 8¢ $688 $516 −$172 (-25%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $503 $437 −$66 (-13%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $413 $399 −$13 (-3%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $383 $317 −$66 (-17%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Yes 50¢ 26¢ $556 $283 −$272 (-49%)
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 68¢ 57¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $420 $4 −$417 (-99%)
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $18 $4 −$14 (-80%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarchy rally? No 60¢ 0¢ $79 $0 −$79 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernie Sanders say "Trump" 15+ times during the Fighting Oligarch Jun 12 $79 −$79 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 12 $588 −$1,444 -246%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 40–50%? Jun 12 $575 −$575 -100%
Will Google say "DeepMind" or "Deep Mind" during earnings call? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump say "Hottest" during call with Service Members on November Jun 12 $303 −$303 -100%
Will "Run Away" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, Jun 12 $1,352 −$1,352 -100%
Will Trump say "Manufacture" or "Manufacturing" during Miami address? Jun 12 $382 −$382 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Jun 12 $4,079 −$4,147 -102%
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by March 31? Jun 12 $4,385 −$4,451 -102%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Jun 12 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Will “Nobody Wants This: Season 2” be the top global Netflix show this Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Youtube" or "Youtuber" 10+ times at the NYT DealBook Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the United States win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Oly Jun 12 $2,561 −$2,561 -100%
Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Google say "Search Advertising" or "Search Ad" during earnings ca Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Jun 12 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Trump say "Mental institution" in Corpus Christi on Friday? Jun 12 $0 +$38 +53094%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24? Jun 12 $1,626 −$1,617 -99%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jun 12 $2,643 −$2,643 -100%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novembe Jun 12 $642 −$642 -100%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jun 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Jun 12 $538 −$538 -100%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this we Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump say "Affordability" in Corpus Christi on Friday? Jun 12 $152 −$152 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20? Jun 12 $277 −$277 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 202 Jun 12 $1,911 −$1,911 -100%
Will The Weeknd be the third most streamed Spotify artist for 2025? Jun 12 $800 −$800 -100%
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6? Jun 12 $180 −$180 -100%
Will BigFuture School be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Nove Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times d Jun 12 $109 −$109 -100%
Will Sam Altman be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will "Skyscraper Live" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 2 Jun 12 $354 −$354 -100%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top global Netflix show this w Jun 12 $129 −$129 -100%
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28? Jun 12 $3,670 −$3,670 -100%
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novembe Jun 12 $670 −$670 -100%
Will "Mike Epps: Delusional" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (Feb Jun 12 $348 −$348 -100%
Will Trump say "Somali" or "Somalia" during the medal presentation on Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "A Cowboy Christmas Romance" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week Jun 12 $366 −$117 -32%
Will Vance say "Ass" during his Rocky Mount visit? Jun 12 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Coinbase run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times in Corpus Christi on Friday? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Google say "Nano Banana" during earnings call? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Miami address? Jun 12 $366 −$366 -100%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30? Jun 12 $1,000 +$8,768 +877%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Will the United States win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics Jun 12 $1,720 −$1,720 -100%
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on Novembe Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 62% −$22,313
other 20% −$13,118
crypto 8% +$22,375
politics 3% +$16,233
sports 3% +$1,515
tech 2% +$7,807
finance 2% −$6,829
economics 0% −$1,363
culture 0% −$3,918
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $4,490 1h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $161 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $430 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $121 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $81 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $628 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 38¢ $419 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 23¢ $256 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 23¢ $1 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 23¢ $0 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 23¢ $3 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 23¢ $0 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 23¢ $5 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 23¢ $2 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 23¢ $14 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 38¢ $3 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 23¢ $236 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 10¢ $712 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 29¢ $222 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $13 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $3 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $39 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $18 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $3 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $16 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $3 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $21 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $21 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -26.3% -33.3% 7% 6% -56.1%
≤30d 131 -11.5% -19.9% 23% 22% -21.0%
≤90d 190 +12.8% +2.1% 32% 29% -11.3%
all 193 +11.0% +0.5% 32% 29% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 29% -11.9%
10% -9.1% 26% -20.3%
15% ← realistic here -17.9% 24% -28.0%
20% -26.0% 21% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $91,759.75 · official $93,117.96 · 3500 history records