Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3c58…7bd8 crypto 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$10 (+2%) realized +$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%18W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 19d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +31.5% +19.0% 60% 50% -10.0%
≤30d 31 +30.3% +17.9% 58% 48% -10.0%
≤90d 31 +30.3% +17.9% 58% 48% -10.0%
all 31 +30.3% +17.9% 58% 48% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.9% 48% -10.0%
10% +6.6% 45% -18.6%
15% -3.7% 39% -26.5%
20% -13.1% 29% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +66% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$16 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage19d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$3 -65%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$21 +106%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +76%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$23 +44%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$17 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$12 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$1 -15%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$14 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$7 +356%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$14 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$20 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$42 +772%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $1 $0 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $1 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 25m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $5 34m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 40m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $41 42m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $20 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $45 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 50m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 54m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $48 56m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 58m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $27 59m
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $43 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $39 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $25 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records