Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:41:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c57…8425 other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$38 (-22%) realized −$40 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% −$21
crypto 8% −$14
sports 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-41.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -35.7% -41.8% 36% 36% -34.1%
≤30d 14 -35.7% -41.8% 36% 36% -34.1%
≤90d 14 -35.7% -41.8% 36% 36% -34.1%
all 14 -35.7% -41.8% 36% 36% -34.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -41.8% 36% -34.1%
10% -47.4% 36% -40.4%
15% -52.5% 36% -46.1%
20% -57.1% 21% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -79% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)14 / 22
History coverage6d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+21%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+17%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$6 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$13 +94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $6 +$10 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $14 +$6 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 56m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 57m
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 57m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 58m
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 58m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $13 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $14 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $14 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $28 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $14 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $6 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.75 · official $16.75 (match) · 32 history records