Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:14:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c56…6fa6 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 311d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate30%25W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$18
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 33% −$6
sports 23% −$5
other 23% $0
politics 17% +$3
culture 2% $0
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 30% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 33 -1.1% -10.5% 24% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 44 +1.4% -8.3% 23% 2% -9.7%
all 84 +1.3% -8.4% 30% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 2% -9.6%
10% -17.2% 2% -18.3%
15% -25.2% 2% -26.2%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses25 / 59
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage311d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $66 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $139 +$1 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $71 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $65 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $44 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $140 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $65 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $65 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $71 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $23 −$1 -4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $65 −$2 -3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $65 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $155 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $146 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $13 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $63 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $180 −$12 -7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $64 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $114 −$4 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 -6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $139 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $2 $0 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $98 −$4 -4%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $1 $0 -15%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $77 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $70 −$1 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $62 +$5 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $71 −$7 -9%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $156 $0 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $47 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $581 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $142 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $781 −$5 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $67 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $19 +$19 +100%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $569 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $568 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in August? Aug 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 19 $37 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 19 $48 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $27 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $62 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $69 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $68 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $69 20h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $71 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $62 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $65 37h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $57 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $72 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $28 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $44 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $8 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $29 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $28 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $65 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $65 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 68¢ $65 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $13 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $65 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $65 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $72 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 91¢ $71 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 292 history records