Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c52…e3b0 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate20%9W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$1
other 27% −$6
politics 14% +$1
sports 9% $0
economics 7% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 2% $0
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 8 -0.6% -10.0% 12% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 15 -1.4% -10.8% 20% 0% -9.7%
all 44 +0.6% -9.0% 20% 5% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -9.8%
10% -17.7% 5% -18.4%
15% -25.7% 5% -26.3%
20% -33.0% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 35
Open positions0
Markets (closed)44 / 44
History coverage273d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 44 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $127 −$2 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $45 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $7 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $36 −$1 -4%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $19 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $91 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $16 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $18 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $42 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $2 $0 -8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 19 $2 $0 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $4 +$2 +48%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 05 $1 $0 -2%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 04 $42 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $34 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $1 −$1 -75%
Will the 2025 Ryder Cup end in a tie? Sep 28 $24 −$4 -14%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 28 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 27 $1 +$1 +96%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 27 $2 $0 -4%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Sep 27 $28 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 19 to September 26, Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2025? Sep 23 $21 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $46 19m
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $46 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $36 31h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 34h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $32 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 88¢ $12 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $41 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $30 5d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $19 27d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $19 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $15 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $20 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $7 28d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $44 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $26 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $3 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records