Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:15:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

3C 0x3c51…ee64 sports 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 364d

TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$8,061 (-9%) realized −$8,000 · open −$61

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip

Net edge-24%after slip

Net WR53%break-even

Win rate53%10W / 9L

Whale WR40%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$4,263per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit65%portable

Net worth$4,978now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$3,168

7 days−$11,606

14 days−$5,885

30 days−$5,885

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +53%

net ROI/market (all)-16.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-72.5%	-75.1%	20%	20%	-75.7%
≤30d	6	-52.4%	-57.0%	33%	33%	-28.6%
≤90d	6	-52.4%	-57.0%	33%	33%	-28.6%
all	19	-7.2%	-16.0%	53%	53%	-17.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-16.0%	53%	-17.2%
10% ← realistic here	-24.1%	53%	-25.1%
15%	-31.4%	47%	-32.3%
20%	-38.1%	37%	-39.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 41% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -21% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 40% (≥$6,411) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +25% → late -36% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$2,568 vs −$3,605 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.79 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage

Net worth$4,978

Realized−$8,000

Unrealized−$61

Win rate (resolved)53%

Wins / losses10 / 9

Whale WR (big bets)40%

Open positions1

Markets (closed)19 / 20

History coverage364d

Avg bet$4,263

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	41¢	40¢	$5,040	$4,978	−$61 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$3,226	−$3,168	-98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$3,100	+$1,165	+38%
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21?	Jun 24	$253	−$253	-100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22?	Jun 24	$520	−$520	-100%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota	Jun 24	$8,831	−$8,831	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$11,972	+$5,721	+48%
Pistons vs. Celtics	Feb 05	$6,411	−$6,411	-100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26?	Nov 26	$3,850	+$2,560	+66%
Louisville vs. Miami	Oct 18	$1,699	−$1,548	-91%
Mariners vs. Tigers	Oct 08	$6,258	+$4,721	+75%
BYU vs. East Carolina	Sep 21	$6,998	+$1,974	+28%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16?	Sep 16	$1,499	+$1,128	+75%
Blue Jays vs. Orioles	Sep 16	$10,404	−$10,404	-100%
Georgia vs. Tennessee	Sep 14	$2,000	+$1,581	+79%
Will Brentford vs. Chelsea end in a draw?	Sep 13	$3,711	+$2,244	+60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 28 at 5PM	Jul 28	$2,298	+$2,967	+129%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 28?	Jul 28	$1,299	−$1,299	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1?	Jul 01	$2,899	+$1,618	+56%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?	Jun 30	$2,911	−$12	-0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	41¢	$5,129	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	40¢	$11	3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	40¢	$3,214	3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$4,265	5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	70¢	$4	5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	72¢	$3,096	5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$11,972	7d
Will Al Taawoun Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21?	BUY Yes	56¢	$253	39d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-22?	BUY Yes	36¢	$520	99d
Pistons vs. Celtics	BUY Pistons	55¢	$6,411	215d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26?	SELL Yes	100¢	$6,411	215d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-26?	BUY Yes	60¢	$3,850	215d
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Minnesota	BUY Nebraska Cornhuskers	62¢	$8,831	254d
Louisville vs. Miami	SELL Miami	7¢	$151	254d
Louisville vs. Miami	BUY Miami	79¢	$1,699	255d
Mariners vs. Tigers	BUY Mariners	57¢	$6,258	265d
BYU vs. East Carolina	BUY BYU	78¢	$6,998	282d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$2,628	286d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-09-16?	BUY Yes	57¢	$1,499	286d
Georgia vs. Tennessee	SELL Georgia	100¢	$3,581	289d
Georgia vs. Tennessee	BUY Georgia	56¢	$2,000	289d
Will Brentford vs. Chelsea end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$5,955	289d
Will Brentford vs. Chelsea end in a draw?	BUY Yes	62¢	$3,711	289d
Blue Jays vs. Orioles	BUY Blue Jays	62¢	$5,404	335d
Blue Jays vs. Orioles	BUY Blue Jays	64¢	$5,000	335d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 28 at 5PM	SELL Yes	100¢	$5,265	336d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $118K and $119K on July 28 at 5PM	BUY Yes	44¢	$2,298	336d
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 28?	BUY Up	60¢	$1,299	336d
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1?	SELL Down	98¢	$4,517	363d
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 1?	BUY Down	63¢	$2,899	364d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,978.21 · official $4,978.21 (match) · 41 history records