trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | +29.6% | +17.2% | 75% | 75% | +5.7% |
| ≤90d | 16 | -2.5% | -11.7% | 75% | 50% | -2.2% |
| all | 16 | -2.5% | -11.7% | 75% | 50% | -2.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -11.7% | 50% | -2.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -20.2% | 25% | -11.6% |
| 15% | -27.9% | 6% | -20.1% |
| 20% | -35.0% | 6% | -28.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? | No | 60¢ | 46¢ | $4,500 | $3,434 | −$1,066 (-24%) |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | No | 97¢ | 98¢ | $3,000 | $3,044 | +$44 (+1%) |
| Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? | Yes | 71¢ | 64¢ | $2,700 | $2,420 | −$280 (-10%) |
| Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? | No | 77¢ | 90¢ | $1,500 | $1,758 | +$258 (+17%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 29¢ | 8¢ | $2,000 | $517 | −$1,483 (-74%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $4,725 | +$9,142 | +194% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $20,075 | +$2,716 | +14% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | May 23 | $6,000 | −$6,000 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? | May 23 | $12,000 | +$1,349 | +11% |
| Starmer out by May 19, 2026? | May 20 | $15,052 | +$1,385 | +9% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 18? | May 19 | $5,499 | +$222 | +4% |
| Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) | May 17 | $1,010 | −$1,000 | -99% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $18,931 | +$3,018 | +16% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? | May 10 | $668 | +$73 | +11% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | May 09 | $13,770 | +$4,418 | +32% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? | May 04 | $13,144 | +$627 | +5% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? | May 01 | $500 | +$149 | +30% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | May 01 | $14,647 | +$4,101 | +28% |
| Will the DHS shutdown end between April 29-30, 2026? | Apr 30 | $5,820 | −$5,790 | -100% |
| Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? | Apr 30 | $3,078 | +$236 | +8% |
| Genius FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Apr 22 | $3,500 | −$3,500 | -100% |