Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:56:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3c4d…8caf crypto 1349 markets active 3d ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$96 (-3%) realized −$96 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%465W / 734L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day26.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$91
30 days+$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$141
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 93 +1.5% -8.2% 30% 30% -5.9%
≤30d 555 +25.4% +13.5% 35% 35% +11.9%
≤90d 1199 +9.6% -0.9% 39% 39% -5.1%
all 1199 +9.6% -0.9% 39% 39% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.9% 39% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.4% 39% -14.2%
15% -19.0% 39% -22.5%
20% -27.0% 38% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$96
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses465 / 734
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1199 / 1349
History coverage65d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day26.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1199 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$4 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$3 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$8 +312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$5 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$6 +245%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2169 history records