Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c4c…066e crypto 1190 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,074 (-20%) realized −$1,044 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%428W / 752L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day71.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days−$213
14 days−$233
30 days−$565
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$527
other 8% −$58
sports 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
weather 0% −$5
economics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 288 -16.7% -24.7% 32% 32% -25.1%
≤30d 1180 -8.6% -17.3% 36% 35% -19.3%
≤90d 1180 -8.6% -17.3% 36% 35% -19.3%
all 1180 -8.6% -17.3% 36% 35% -19.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.3% 35% -19.3%
10% ← realistic here -25.3% 34% -27.0%
15% -32.5% 32% -34.0%
20% -39.1% 30% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$1,044
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses428 / 752
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)1180 / 1190
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day71.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 1180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 87¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? No 49¢ 57¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? No 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? No 33¢ 22¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-31%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 18? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 38¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +134%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$9 +212%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$21 +506%
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$7 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $10 +$11 +113%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Alan Wazny Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 +$7 +89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$7 +173%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$7 +173%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$12 +281%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$7 +166%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$14 +374%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$24 +597%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$7 +166%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 24m
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $3 24m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $4 44m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $4 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 2h
Micron (MU) Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 100¢ $2 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $4 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $4 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $4 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $4 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $4 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $4 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.53 · official $24.53 (match) · 3500 history records