Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:36:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

3C 0x3c49…cb6c other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$263 (+59%) realized +$270 · open −$7

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +148% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +124% what you keep after slip

Net edge+124%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$40per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit36%portable

Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$270

7 days+$250

14 days+$271

30 days+$271

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+124.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+218.4%	+188.1%	80%	80%	+181.5%
≤30d	7	+148.0%	+124.3%	71%	71%	+91.7%
≤90d	7	+148.0%	+124.3%	71%	71%	+91.7%
all	7	+148.0%	+124.3%	71%	71%	+91.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+124.3%	71%	+91.7%
10%	+102.9%	71%	+73.3%
15%	+83.3%	71%	+56.6%
20%	+65.3%	43%	+41.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +112% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +148% · $-wt +112% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$63 vs −$21 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.31 per $1 lost it wins $7.31

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage

Net worth$189

Realized+$270

Unrealized−$7

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions4

Markets (closed)7 / 11

History coverage11d

Avg bet$40

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	6¢	$50	$62	+$12 (+23%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	5¢	5¢	$46	$48	+$1 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	7¢	$50	$31	−$19 (-39%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Jun 21	$5	+$4	+77%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 21	$24	+$183	+776%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$49	+$24	+48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$59	+291%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$20	−$20	-99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$24	−$23	-98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$101	+$44	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	BUY Up	54¢	$5	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$207	20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	11¢	$24	23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	67¢	$49	26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$80	41h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	25¢	$20	43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$20	5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	16¢	$24	8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$51	9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$145	9d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	5¢	$48	10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$51	10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	69¢	$101	10d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.11 · official $189.11 (match) · 26 history records