Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c48…5136 sports 1697 markets active 3h ago coverage 119d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$41 (+1%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%872W / 821L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$50est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$65
14 days−$11
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 -22.9% -30.2% 39% 39% -21.5%
≤30d 509 +0.5% -9.0% 50% 50% -8.9%
≤90d 1437 -1.9% -11.3% 50% 50% -10.7%
all 1693 -0.6% -10.1% 52% 51% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 51% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 51% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 51% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 50% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses872 / 821
Est. fees paid−$50
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1693 / 1697
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1693 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 46¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +114%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $5 +$4 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 +$7 +216%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-9.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +97%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +129%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $5 +$5 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$4 +83%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $5 +$4 +73%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $5 +$6 +114%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $5 −$1 -10%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $5 +$5 +105%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 +$4 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $5 +$4 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $5 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 56¢ $5 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $5 7h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $5 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 9h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Detroit Tigers 52¢ $5 9h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 55¢ $5 14h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $5 15h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 60¢ $5 15h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 15h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 51¢ $5 15h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $5 15h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 15h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $5 15h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $5 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $5 22h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $5 22h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 72¢ $5 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $3 29h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $5 40h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) BUY Dallas Wings 52¢ $5 40h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $5 40h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $5 40h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 40h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $5 40h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $5 40h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 57¢ $5 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 3500 history records