Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:24:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c48…958b crypto 52 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$27 (+4%) realized +$56 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%29W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -5.7% -14.7% 58% 48% -8.6%
≤30d 50 -5.7% -14.7% 58% 48% -8.6%
≤90d 50 -5.7% -14.7% 58% 48% -8.6%
all 50 -5.7% -14.7% 58% 48% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 48% -8.6%
10% -22.9% 38% -17.3%
15% -30.3% 34% -25.3%
20% -37.1% 22% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$9 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses29 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage5d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 65¢ 30¢ $25 $12 −$14 (-55%)
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 55¢ 22¢ $25 $10 −$15 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$24 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 13 $52 +$49 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $31 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $27 −$25 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $25 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $3 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $7 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $27 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $8 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.18 · official $37.02 · 114 history records