Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:12:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3c44…0919 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$124 (-8%) realized −$124 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%1W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$88
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$131
politics 28% −$1
world 20% +$18
crypto 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 8 -23.3% -30.6% 12% 12% -16.3%
≤90d 8 -23.3% -30.6% 12% 12% -16.3%
all 8 -23.3% -30.6% 12% 12% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 12% -16.3%
10% -37.2% 12% -24.3%
15% -43.3% 0% -31.6%
20% -48.9% 0% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$35 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses1 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage14d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Jun 24 $465 −$1 -0%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 24 $387 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $252 $0 +0%
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? Jun 16 $254 $0 +0%
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 11 $78 −$78 -100%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 11 $86 −$10 -11%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? Jun 10 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 10 $73 +$18 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $232 53m
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $232 54m
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $465 1h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $387 1h
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $387 2h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $252 8d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $252 8d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $75 8d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $179 8d
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $254 8d
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY Yes 8¢ $40 13d
Game 2: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY Yes 8¢ $38 13d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $77 13d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $45 13d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 13d
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 14d
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 14d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $91 14d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $36 14d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $37 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records