Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:34:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3c3f…e120 other 127 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$952 (-1%) realized −$952 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%27W / 99L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$932per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$10
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% −$55
other 37% −$214
sports 14% −$704
world 6% −$7
economics 2% −$3
culture 2% −$3
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 -1.8% -11.1% 8% 0% -10.9%
all 126 +0.3% -9.2% 21% 13% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 13% -10.3%
10% -17.9% 13% -18.9%
15% -25.8% 11% -26.7%
20% -33.1% 10% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,271) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$22 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$550
Realized−$952
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses27 / 99
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage135d
Avg bet$932
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $550 $550 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 27 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $1,210 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $948 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $657 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $1,712 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $5,146 −$6 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $843 −$1 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 27 $1,136 −$1,136 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,057 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,074 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,703 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $2,138 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $6,277 −$8 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,097 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,074 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 06 $1,013 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 05 $1,567 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $961 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $953 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 02 $520 +$1 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $504 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,884 −$2 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $1,055 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,038 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $1,691 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $4,737 −$5 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $2,419 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $807 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $2,693 −$3 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 11 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $2,078 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 07 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $2,143 −$2 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 02 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $481 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $481 2h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $421 21h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $422 25h
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $423 5d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $424 5d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $424 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $425 6d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $424 7d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $425 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $412 8d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $413 8d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $550 10d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $515 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $516 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $887 12d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $888 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $947 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $948 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $924 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $925 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $856 14d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $858 14d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $857 19d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $858 19d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $656 20d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $657 20d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $985 22d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $987 22d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $892 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549.78 · official $549.78 (match) · 423 history records