Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3c3b…b2a1 sports 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$100 (-11%) realized −$100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%9W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$202
other 21% −$2
world 18% +$91
politics 3% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -58.9% -62.8% 25% 25% -40.0%
≤30d 4 -58.9% -62.8% 25% 25% -40.0%
≤90d 4 -58.9% -62.8% 25% 25% -40.0%
all 31 -5.0% -14.0% 29% 26% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 26% -21.5%
10% -22.2% 26% -29.0%
15% -29.8% 26% -35.9%
20% -36.6% 26% -42.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late -47% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$19 · ×1.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses9 / 22
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage134d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $36 −$10 -28%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$13 +64%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO? Mar 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 02 $40 −$29 -73%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 02 $4 −$4 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Mar 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 28 $128 −$4 -3%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 Feb 28 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $44 +$45 +104%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Feb 28 $38 −$3 -8%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 28 $30 −$1 -4%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 28 $70 −$70 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$101 +1010%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Feb 27 $30 −$30 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 24 $20 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Feb 23 $10 +$8 +77%
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Feb 22 $31 +$58 +186%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 19 $6 $0 +3%
Thunder vs. Lakers Feb 10 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - Feb 02 $30 +$25 +85%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Feb 01 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Feb 01 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Feb 01 $15 −$15 -100%
UFC 325: Dan Hooker vs. Benoit Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $12 −$12 -100%
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card) Feb 01 $59 +$41 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $118 54m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 20¢ $10 58m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $26 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $10 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $33 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $20 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $10 5h
Will Max Holloway win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 100d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 104d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 104d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 105d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $15 105d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $50 105d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 63¢ $20 105d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 92¢ $125 106d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $128 106d
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY BNK FEARX 12¢ $10 106d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 SELL Yes 100¢ $50 106d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $89 106d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $44 106d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $35 106d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 106d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 15¢ $29 106d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 106d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA 35¢ $30 106d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA 54¢ $40 106d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026 BUY Yes 61¢ $30 106d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 106d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $30 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 65 history records