Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:54:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c39…95d0 other 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$38 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate95%53W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$604now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 35% +$25
other 33% +$40
world 16% +$32
politics 8% −$77
economics 5% +$4
tech 3% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -6.6%
≤90d 10 +2.4% -7.3% 100% 0% -7.3%
all 56 +3.0% -6.8% 95% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 5% -9.3%
10% -15.7% 4% -18.0%
15% -23.8% 4% -25.9%
20% -31.3% 4% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$52 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$604
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses53 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)56 / 61
History coverage618d
Avg bet$190
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $180 $183 +$3 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $116 $116 +$0 (+0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $71 $72 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $120 +$9 +7%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$2 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? May 06 $110 +$1 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 06 $170 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 06 $290 +$8 +3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 24 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 April 6-12? Apr 17 $111 +$1 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 10 $190 +$2 +1%
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? Apr 10 $267 +$11 +4%
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? Mar 25 $170 +$4 +2%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in February 2026? Mar 07 $185 +$1 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? Mar 07 $351 +$7 +2%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Feb 09 $202 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026 Feb 09 $330 +$1 +0%
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? Jan 25 $111 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 11? Jan 25 $220 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? Jan 11 $180 +$1 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 11 $344 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 8? Dec 23 $155 +$2 +1%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 8? Dec 23 $373 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? Dec 08 $516 +$3 +1%
Solana Up or Down on November 5? Nov 25 $218 +$4 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.30 on November 5? Nov 25 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $4,000 September 29-October 5? Nov 05 $233 +$1 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 05 $255 +$3 +1%
Will lighter perform an airdrop by September 30? Oct 03 $30 $0 +2%
Fed rate cut by September meeting? Oct 03 $136 +$4 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Oct 03 $330 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $119K and $121K on August 4? Sep 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3900 on August 4? Sep 12 $400 +$1 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on July 18? Aug 04 $206 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $500 +$5 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 15 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jul 15 $133 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 295 or more times June 13–20? Jul 15 $333 +$2 +1%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 9–16? Jun 14 $460 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 15 $60 $0 +1%
Solana above $120 on April 18? May 15 $61 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 15 $28 +$70 +250%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 15 $255 +$1 +0%
Will 'Minecraft' gross between 46-52m on opening weekend? Apr 18 $70 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. recognize Syrian government by March 31? Apr 18 $80 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 28 - April 4? Apr 18 $170 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Apr 01 $371 $0 +0%
Was Milei hacked? Mar 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 15 $300 +$1 +0%
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025? Feb 15 $62 +$9 +15%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Feb 15 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Feb 15 $200 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 98¢ $116 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $122 1h
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 23d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $180 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $150 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $197 23d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $200 49d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $266 49d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 93¢ $120 49d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $110 62d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $110 68d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 April 6-12? BUY No 99¢ $111 75d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $170 75d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $290 75d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $190 91d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 95¢ $100 110d
Starmer out by March 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $267 110d
Will the ECB announce no change at the March 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 98¢ $170 110d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by February 28, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $351 135d
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $185 135d
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $330 151d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 11? BUY No 100¢ $220 165d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? BUY No 99¢ $202 165d
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? BUY No 100¢ $111 165d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY No 99¢ $344 184d
Will Elon Musk be richest person on December 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $180 184d
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 8? BUY No 100¢ $373 198d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $155 198d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November? BUY No 99¢ $516 211d
Solana Up or Down on November 5? BUY Up 98¢ $218 231d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $604.45 · official $604.45 (match) · 122 history records