Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:58:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c37…d887 sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$683 (-29%) realized −$658 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$636
other 20% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-62.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -58.5% -62.5% 17% 17% -62.9%
≤30d 12 -58.5% -62.5% 17% 17% -62.9%
≤90d 12 -58.5% -62.5% 17% 17% -62.9%
all 12 -58.5% -62.5% 17% 17% -62.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.5% 17% -62.9%
10% -66.0% 17% -66.4%
15% -69.3% 17% -69.7%
20% -72.3% 17% -72.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late -57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$142 vs −$96 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,140
Realized−$658
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions14
Markets (closed)12 / 26
History coverage2d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $86 $89 +$2 (+3%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Under 38¢ 38¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 74¢ 76¢ $83 $85 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Czechia 75¢ 74¢ $84 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Haiti 62¢ 62¢ $83 $83 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Haiti 39¢ 38¢ $85 $83 −$1 (-1%)
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $85 $83 −$2 (-2%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 38¢ $84 $81 −$3 (-4%)
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Haiti 80¢ 80¢ $81 $81 −$1 (-1%)
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Under 90¢ 90¢ $79 $79 −$0 (-1%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Under 25¢ 22¢ $87 $78 −$9 (-10%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? No 31¢ 30¢ $81 $77 −$4 (-5%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Under 19¢ 18¢ $82 $76 −$7 (-8%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 18¢ 18¢ $78 $76 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $88 −$88 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $93 +$147 +158%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $93 −$93 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Jun 23 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $97 +$136 +140%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Czechia 75¢ $85 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 18¢ $80 2h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 90¢ $80 2h
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Haiti 80¢ $82 2h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Haiti 62¢ $84 2h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 39¢ $86 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $84 8h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $87 8h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $88 8h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $88 8h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $89 8h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $88 9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 31¢ $82 14h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 19¢ $84 14h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $86 14h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 75¢ $90 17h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $92 17h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Ghana 38¢ $93 19h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 34¢ $93 24h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $98 29h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 37¢ $98 34h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $97 36h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 22¢ $100 36h
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 38¢ $101 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 33¢ $102 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 34¢ $102 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,139.89 · official $1,139.89 (match) · 38 history records