Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:12:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c34…0959 sports 331 markets active 1h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$2,214 (-5%) realized −$2,210 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%205W / 125L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$77
14 days−$9
30 days−$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,377
other 2% +$37
crypto 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +9.9% -0.6% 53% 53% -3.5%
≤30d 44 +8.3% -2.0% 52% 50% -14.1%
≤90d 133 +3.9% -6.0% 58% 48% -13.2%
all 330 -0.0% -9.6% 62% 48% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 48% -14.7%
10% -18.2% 32% -22.8%
15% -26.1% 18% -30.3%
20% -33.4% 8% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$56 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2,210
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses205 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions1
Markets (closed)330 / 331
History coverage183d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $150 −$4 -3%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$19 +38%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$13 -62%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $35 +$10 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$16 +31%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 −$9 -44%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $86 +$12 +14%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$7 +65%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$12 +39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$37 -74%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $136 −$7 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$18 -91%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$16 -82%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$21 +203%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$9 -56%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$16 +81%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$9 -58%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$17 +114%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$14 +55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $51 −$11 -22%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $30 +$14 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$19 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 +$4 +11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$9 +57%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$12 -57%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$7 +33%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$4 +7%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $121 −$97 -80%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $131 −$48 -37%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $304 −$180 -59%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $51 −$50 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $272 −$3 -1%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $51 +$33 +65%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $20 −$20 -96%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $20 +$63 +307%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $182 +$57 +31%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $51 −$42 -84%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $248 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $121 +$20 +17%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $201 +$9 +5%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 08 $51 −$49 -96%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $119 −$18 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 39m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 40m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 40m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 87¢ $146 41m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $150 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $70 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 5h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 22h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 98¢ $46 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $35 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 84¢ $66 28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 31h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $11 31h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $48 45h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $62 45h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 47h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $35 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $35 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $35 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $17 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 82¢ $42 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $13 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 38¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.72 · official $0.72 (match) · 1004 history records