Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
3C 0x3c33…8ad6 sports 322 markets active 0h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,672 (-5%) realized −$2,672 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate56%181W / 140L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$175per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$775
7 days+$20
14 days−$106
30 days−$596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% −$3,744
sports 11% +$576
other 6% −$13
politics 6% −$24
finance 1% +$160
tech 1% +$246
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +2.4% -7.4% 41% 32% -9.3%
≤30d 124 -0.8% -10.3% 53% 41% -12.6%
≤90d 233 +2.5% -7.3% 54% 42% -17.7%
all 321 +2.1% -7.6% 56% 43% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 43% -14.0%
10% -16.4% 28% -22.2%
15% -24.5% 19% -29.8%
20% -31.9% 12% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$67 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$2,672
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses181 / 140
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)321 / 322
History coverage257d
Avg bet$175
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 321 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $300 +$5 +2%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $1,643 −$486 -30%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 19 $282 −$170 -60%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $400 −$10 -3%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $122 −$51 -42%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $289 −$63 -22%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $57 $0 -1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$1 -3%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 −$2 -7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $13 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $15 −$2 -15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -75%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $52 +$8 +15%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $2 +$1 +37%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $301 +$40 +13%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 16 $13 −$3 -21%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $2,385 +$256 +11%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $1 +$1 +60%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $162 +$6 +4%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $100 +$8 +8%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $199 +$133 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $105 −$8 -7%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $511 +$124 +24%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $4 $0 -9%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $1 $0 -37%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $164 +$133 +81%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $1,869 +$143 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $646 −$33 -5%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $25 −$3 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $122 +$18 +15%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 13 $7 +$29 +414%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $170 −$15 -9%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -38%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $70 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $51 −$19 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $440 −$155 -35%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $106 +$5 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $49 +$5 +11%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $40 +$9 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Jun 05 $31 +$9 +28%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $29 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $305 1m
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $300 41m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 32¢ $106 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 33¢ $151 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 33¢ $146 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 38¢ $112 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $112 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $42 13h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 83¢ $42 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 14h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 76¢ $50 14h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $190 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $189 20h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 82¢ $200 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 91¢ $200 23h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $48 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $400 29h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 73¢ $47 31h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $47 31h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 75¢ $205 32h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $205 32h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $77 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $53 32h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $24 32h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 32h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $24 32h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $23 33h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 33h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 33h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.48 · official $1.48 (match) · 1589 history records