Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:32:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c33…028e crypto 391 markets active 7d ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate79%308W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$19
14 days−$19
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -20.5% -28.0% 44% 33% -28.1%
≤30d 199 -4.0% -13.2% 75% 33% -12.5%
≤90d 391 -0.9% -10.3% 79% 31% -10.4%
all 391 -0.9% -10.3% 79% 31% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 31% -10.4%
10% -18.9% 7% -19.0%
15% -26.8% 1% -26.8%
20% -33.9% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses308 / 83
Open positions0
Markets (closed)391 / 391
History coverage73d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 391 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET May 29 $15 −$10 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 29 $15 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 27 $15 −$8 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 27 $15 −$9 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 27 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET May 27 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET May 27 $15 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET May 27 $15 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET May 27 $15 −$8 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 27 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 27 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 27 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 27 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 27 $15 −$7 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 27 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET May 27 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 27 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 27 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 27 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET May 27 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET May 27 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 27 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET May 27 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 26 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 26 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 26 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET May 26 $15 −$9 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 26 $15 −$11 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 26 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 26 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 26 $15 −$8 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 26 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 26 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 26 $15 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 26 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 26 $15 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 26 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 26 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $6 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $7 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $15 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $16 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $15 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $7 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $17 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $15 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $16 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 937 history records