Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:55:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c33…5934 other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%2W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% $0
politics 21% −$1
sports 14% $0
world 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 3 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
all 13 -0.1% -9.6% 15% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses2 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage95d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 20 $85 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $85 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $85 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $85 $0 +0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $85 −$1 -1%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $85 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $87 $0 +0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $87 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 24 $87 $0 +0%
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $87 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $85 1h
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $85 13h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $85 12d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $85 12d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $85 22d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $85 23d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $85 32d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $85 32d
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 34d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $85 38d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $85 38d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $85 42d
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $85 42d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $85 47d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $85 47d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $87 63d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $87 63d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $87 66d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $46 67d
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $41 67d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $87 72d
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $87 72d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $87 78d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $87 78d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $87 87d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 88d
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $33 88d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $87 94d
Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $87 95d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records