Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:50:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c32…3f1c other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$3,471 (-12%) realized −$3,580 · open −$604
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +238% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +150% what you keep after slip
Net edge+150%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,427per market
Trades / day141.8pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$6,567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$385
7 days−$3,580
14 days−$3,580
30 days−$3,580
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$2,804
sports 36% −$6,575
crypto 5% −$413
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+205.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +238.0% +205.8% 57% 50% -23.0%
≤30d 14 +238.0% +205.8% 57% 50% -23.0%
≤90d 14 +238.0% +205.8% 57% 50% -23.0%
all 14 +238.0% +205.8% 57% 50% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover141.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +205.8% 50% -23.0%
10% +176.6% 50% -30.4%
15% ← realistic here +149.8% 43% -37.1%
20% +125.3% 43% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 93% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +238% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +411% → late +65% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,013 vs −$1,947 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6,567
Realized−$3,580
Unrealized−$604
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions7
Markets (closed)14 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,427
Trades / day141.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 63¢ 82¢ $3,029 $3,955 +$926 (+31%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 80¢ $533 $923 +$390 (+73%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 32¢ 20¢ $1,042 $629 −$413 (-40%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? No 63¢ 62¢ $239 $237 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? No 74¢ 97¢ $148 $195 +$47 (+32%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $157 $156 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $152 $150 −$2 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? No 71¢ 70¢ $92 $91 −$1 (-1%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $83 $77 −$6 (-7%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $118 $73 −$45 (-39%)
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $66 $65 −$1 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 24¢ 3¢ $152 $16 −$136 (-89%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? No 17¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 57¢ 0¢ $6,724 $0 −$6,724 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $3,966 $0 −$3,966 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $159 +$1 +0%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 +$126 +442%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $228 +$193 +85%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $532 +$188 +35%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $62 +$56 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,098 −$898 -82%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $6,797 −$6,724 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$36 +1900%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $114 +$1,491 +1307%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10,947 +$6,013 +55%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $4,007 −$3,966 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $59 0m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $114 0m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 19¢ $21 7m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 19¢ $29 7m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 19¢ $26 8m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 20¢ $23 9m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 20¢ $21 10m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 20¢ $41 10m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 20¢ $24 10m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 20¢ $29 11m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 21¢ $43 11m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 20¢ $31 11m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 20¢ $36 11m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 21¢ $39 12m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 21¢ $39 12m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $36 12m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $24 12m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 23¢ $28 16m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $37 19m
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $25 20m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 26m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $113 30m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $113 31m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $58 31m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $88 31m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $1 32m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $109 32m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $3 32m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $113 32m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $113 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,567.06 · official $6,567.15 (match) · 308 history records