Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:38:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c32…7156 sports 1534 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 37d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,429 (-4%) realized −$2,635 · open +$206
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%803W / 677L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day55.2pace
Fees−$727est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$314
other 8% +$202
politics 5% +$252
world 4% +$207
tech 1% +$281
culture 0% −$24
crypto 0% +$5
finance 0% −$67
economics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 626 -37.3% -43.3% 34% 33% -40.8%
≤30d 1326 -8.2% -17.0% 49% 48% -18.6%
≤90d 1480 +0.5% -9.0% 54% 53% -9.1%
all 1480 +0.5% -9.0% 54% 53% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 53% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 48% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 43% -25.7%
20% -33.0% 38% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$36 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$2,210
Realized−$2,635
Unrealized+$206
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses803 / 677
Est. fees paid−$727
Open positions57
Markets (closed)1480 / 1534
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$43
Trades / day55.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 57 History 1480 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $123 $130 +$7 (+5%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 48¢ 98¢ $60 $123 +$63 (+106%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $110 $114 +$4 (+4%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 73¢ 99¢ $83 $113 +$30 (+36%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 90¢ 88¢ $112 $111 −$2 (-2%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 88¢ 86¢ $99 $97 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 88¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 68¢ 99¢ $50 $74 +$23 (+46%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? No 84¢ 84¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 82¢ $73 $71 −$2 (-3%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $62 $61 −$1 (-2%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 52¢ 84¢ $36 $59 +$22 (+62%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ 98¢ $32 $55 +$22 (+68%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $55 $54 −$0 (-1%)
Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by June 30? No 90¢ 91¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 72¢ 74¢ $48 $50 +$2 (+3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $46 $48 +$2 (+4%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $48 $45 −$2 (-5%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 46¢ 57¢ $33 $41 +$8 (+25%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? No 85¢ 84¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 62¢ 100¢ $24 $38 +$14 (+62%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? Yes 63¢ 77¢ $31 $38 +$7 (+22%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 13¢ 40¢ $12 $36 +$24 (+207%)
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30? No 71¢ 78¢ $31 $35 +$3 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova Jun 16 $50 +$6 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 +$22 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $32 +$4 +13%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $41 +$7 +18%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $15 +$22 +152%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $38 +$5 +13%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $39 +$14 +35%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $15 +$24 +156%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $19 +$15 +79%
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto Jun 16 $23 −$23 -98%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $22 +$20 +90%
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 16 $51 +$5 +11%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $34 −$34 -99%
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $12 −$12 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $85 +$7 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $64 −$4 -7%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $35 +$18 +50%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 16 $44 +$11 +25%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 16 $46 +$3 +6%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $12 +$37 +307%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
Brescia: Mia Ristic vs Deborah Chiesa Jun 16 $38 +$18 +48%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $3 +$2 +52%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $21 +$33 +160%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $32 +$23 +72%
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 16 $25 −$1 -3%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $37 −$36 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Brescia: Jazmin Ortenzi vs Francesca Pace Jun 16 $19 −$18 -98%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $31 −$30 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $32 +$18 +57%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $170 +$68 +40%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $40 +$11 +27%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $67 +$14 +21%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 +$5 +11%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $58 +$20 +34%
Londrina EC vs. Avaí FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$7 +134%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $32 +$26 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $27 +$19 +67%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $105 +$55 +52%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $25 $0 -2%
Harriet Dart vs. Katie Boulter: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $53 −$2 -3%
Set Handicap: Bu (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) Jun 16 $62 −$1 -2%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $44 −$27 -61%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $33 −$32 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 60¢ $27 29m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 35¢ $16 52m
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 58¢ $33 52m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 53¢ $26 1h
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 62¢ $24 1h
Asuncion 2: Hernando Escurra vs Hernan Casanova BUY Hernan Casanova 88¢ $50 1h
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY No 46¢ $33 1h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 37¢ $19 1h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 76¢ $55 1h
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres BUY Juan Bautista Torres 36¢ $21 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $22 3h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 47¢ $16 3h
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria BUY Federico Coria 40¢ $0 3h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Jeline Vandromme 39¢ $15 4h
Asuncion 2: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Matias Soto BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 41¢ $23 4h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 22¢ $7 5h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 22¢ $2 5h
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 88¢ $38 5h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 56¢ $14 6h
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 56¢ $5 6h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Zhizhen Zhang BUY Zhizhen Zhang 77¢ $25 6h
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Manoj Dhamne Manas 60¢ $34 6h
Brescia: Ane Mintegi Del Olmo vs Xiaodi You BUY Xiaodi You 53¢ $20 6h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Kamil Majchrzak 32¢ $11 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 34¢ $25 6h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 6h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 21¢ $7 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 84¢ $73 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $88 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,210.34 · official $2,209.90 (match) · 3500 history records