Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c31…cbaf sports 111 markets active 1h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$944 (+1%) realized +$946 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate25%27W / 82L
Whale WR4%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$1,186per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,296now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$16
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$120
politics 33% −$53
sports 18% +$1,144
world 4% −$43
economics 2% −$2
crypto 2% +$2
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 51 -20.4% -28.0% 12% 2% -10.5%
all 109 -0.4% -9.9% 25% 11% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 11% -8.9%
10% -18.5% 10% -17.6%
15% -26.4% 9% -25.6%
20% -33.6% 7% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 75% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 4% (≥$1,541) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$10 · ×6.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$1,296
Realized+$946
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses27 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)4%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)109 / 111
History coverage146d
Avg bet$1,186
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $858 $856 −$2 (-0%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $440 $440 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,078 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,091 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $2,067 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,001 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $1,290 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,175 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $1,809 −$3 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,999 −$3 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $2,464 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,175 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 02 $408 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $477 +$2 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $555 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,197 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,808 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,868 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $959 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,573 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,377 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,366 −$2 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $954 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $1,393 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 02 $349 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 02 $472 +$1 +0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $615 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $7,940 −$8 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $5,123 −$5 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $3,722 −$4 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $1,206 −$1 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 05 $65 $0 +0%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) Mar 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-02-22? Mar 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5) Mar 26 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Mar 26 $17 −$17 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Rangers Mar 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Mar 26 $114 −$114 -100%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-03-06? Mar 26 $99 −$99 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Mar 26 $157 −$157 -100%
Will Valencia CF vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? Mar 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Senators vs. Canucks Mar 26 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 24 $93 +$60 +64%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $1,165 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 23 $4,111 −$4 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $440 57m
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $858 26h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,333 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,336 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,077 4d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,078 4d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,089 4d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,091 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,046 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,048 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $999 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,001 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,289 6d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,290 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,174 10d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,175 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $595 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $596 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,064 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,066 14d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,218 14d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $1,220 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,024 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,173 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,175 15d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $554 17d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $555 17d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $642 21d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $643 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,295.63 · official $1,295.63 (match) · 363 history records