Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:52:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c31…b95c world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate38%29W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$5
other 23% +$2
politics 19% +$2
sports 7% −$11
economics 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +11.5% +0.9% 40% 20% -4.3%
≤30d 25 +1.6% -8.1% 32% 4% -10.1%
≤90d 75 +0.5% -9.0% 39% 1% -9.6%
all 76 -0.8% -10.2% 38% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 1% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses29 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)76 / 77
History coverage490d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 82¢ 86¢ $34 $36 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 21 $3 +$2 +51%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $12 +$1 +6%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $69 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $36 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $33 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $106 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $26 −$3 -11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $39 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $9 $0 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $77 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $35 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $201 −$7 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $122 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 03 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 03 $64 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $88 +$3 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $25 −$2 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $45 +$3 +6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $3 $0 -5%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $44 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $2 $0 +3%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $4 $0 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 18 $83 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $40 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $82 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $22 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $2 $0 -2%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $91 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $159 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $28 +$1 +3%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $39 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 17h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 19h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $3 47h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 5¢ $1 47h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 4¢ $3 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 4¢ $0 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 73¢ $19 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 73¢ $19 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $3 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $30 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $18 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 72¢ $14 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $15 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $20 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $36 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $20 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $33 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.33 · official $36.33 (match) · 289 history records