Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c2f…9765 sports 244 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$300 (+1%) realized +$294 · open +$6
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%127W / 112L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$75est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$149
14 days+$431
30 days+$351
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$2,621
other 24% +$1,030
politics 16% +$1,593
crypto 3% +$320
tech 3% −$62
culture 1% +$7
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +15.5% +4.5% 60% 56% +5.4%
≤30d 91 +4.4% -5.6% 55% 54% -2.1%
≤90d 141 -0.9% -10.3% 55% 53% -3.9%
all 239 -3.8% -13.0% 53% 47% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 47% -8.7%
10% -21.3% 44% -17.4%
15% -28.9% 39% -25.4%
20% -35.9% 32% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -15% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$66 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized+$294
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses127 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$75
Open positions5
Markets (closed)239 / 244
History coverage599d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 85¢ 88¢ $170 $177 +$7 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $113 $126 +$14 (+12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $102 $74 −$28 (-28%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 52¢ 52¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Over 52¢ 100¢ $16 $30 +$14 (+92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $63 +$37 +60%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 19 $27 +$43 +158%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 Jun 18 $31 +$29 +93%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $37 −$29 -80%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +93%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $9 +$11 +114%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $27 +$23 +84%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $18 +$12 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 +$16 +86%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $33 +$30 +90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $30 +$30 +97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $61 +$55 +90%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $41 +$32 +79%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $113 +$7 +6%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 −$2 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $54 +$39 +73%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $130 −$10 -8%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $240 +$45 +19%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Jun 12 $18 −$18 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$16 +77%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $61 +$46 +76%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $15 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $38 −$37 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $29 +$31 +105%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $28 +$22 +76%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Team WE (+1.5) Jun 07 $115 +$85 +73%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-3.5) Jun 06 $48 +$52 +109%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) Jun 06 $63 +$28 +44%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 06 $55 +$31 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $73 +$27 +37%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 04 $47 −$47 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $31 +$19 +62%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 03 $52 −$51 -99%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 03 $88 +$62 +70%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31? Jun 03 $96 +$116 +121%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $32 1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 1h
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 52¢ $5 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 38¢ $27 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $63 3h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 30h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 11¢ $7 42h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 52¢ $37 44h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 51¢ $31 45h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $21 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $16 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $41 2d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $9 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 60¢ $20 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $14 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $14 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $19 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $18 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $10 4d
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 52¢ $33 4d
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $61 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 55¢ $41 5d
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 52¢ $51 5d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) SELL Gen.G 52¢ $100 5d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 51¢ $101 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $31 6d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $51 6d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 64¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $437.88 · official $437.88 (match) · 648 history records