Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:44:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
3C 0x3c28…8e25 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate69%9W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$230per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 88% −$4
other 4% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 2% $0
world 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 71% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 13 +2.1% -7.6% 69% 8% -9.6%
all 13 +2.1% -7.6% 69% 8% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 8% -9.6%
10% -16.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -24.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -31.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses9 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage62d
Avg bet$230
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $41 $0 -1%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? May 26 $42 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs ReThink (BO3) - European Pro League Reg Apr 29 $1 $0 +7%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Apr 29 $1 $0 +21%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $2,552 −$4 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De Apr 28 $49 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 21 $49 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 21 $49 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 13d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $20 13d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $21 14d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL No 100¢ $41 14d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 100¢ $40 16d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 100¢ $1 16d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $41 16d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $41 18d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $41 19d
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 25d
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 99¢ $16 25d
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 99¢ $7 25d
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 99¢ $15 25d
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 99¢ $4 25d
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 99¢ $41 25d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL No 99¢ $41 26d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY No 100¢ $42 39d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2,548 54d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2,552 54d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier BUY Team Vitality 82¢ $1 54d
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs ReThink (BO3) - European Pro League Reg BUY BIG Academy 93¢ $1 54d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De SELL No 99¢ $49 54d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY No 99¢ $47 62d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on De BUY No 99¢ $2 62d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? SELL No 100¢ $49 62d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $49 62d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $49 62d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $49 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records