Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:40:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
3C 0x3c27…97c2 sports 124 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$47 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate14%17W / 104L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$590est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$231now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$162
14 days−$284
30 days−$273
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$249
other 7% −$32
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -2.0% -11.4% 17% 0% -11.0%
≤30d 118 -2.4% -11.7% 14% 3% -10.5%
≤90d 121 -2.1% -11.4% 14% 3% -10.5%
all 121 -2.1% -11.4% 14% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 3% -10.5%
10% -19.9% 2% -19.1%
15% -27.6% 2% -26.9%
20% -34.7% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$6 · ×3.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$231
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses17 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$590
Open positions3
Markets (closed)121 / 124
History coverage31d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Mentality Monster 29¢ 28¢ $145 $140 −$5 (-3%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs Mentality Monster 25¢ 24¢ $76 $73 −$3 (-4%)
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Mentality Monster 29¢ 28¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) Jun 18 $82 −$1 -2%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $230 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $490 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $209 −$3 -2%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $67 −$1 -1%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 17 $395 +$7 +2%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $115 −$3 -2%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $22 −$3 -12%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $12 $0 -2%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 17 $225 $0 -0%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 17 $170 $0 -0%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 17 $250 −$4 -2%
Valorant: Alliance Guardians vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Sta Jun 17 $190 −$3 -1%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $29 $0 -0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $300 −$3 -1%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $176 −$4 -2%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $270 −$49 -18%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $140 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $153 $0 -0%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $335 $0 -0%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $84 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $220 −$4 -2%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $295 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $37 $0 -0%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $160 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $167 −$2 -1%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $242 +$11 +4%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $112 −$3 -3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $260 −$8 -3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $247 $0 -0%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $150 −$38 -25%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $24 −$2 -6%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 -1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 13 $27 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $31 $0 -1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5) Jun 13 $175 $0 -0%
Rainbow Six Siege: INTZ vs Team Liquid (BO1) - South America League St Jun 13 $3 $0 -2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $221 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $54 $0 -0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $170 −$18 -11%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $29 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $925 +$8 +1%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 12 $25 $0 -2%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $375 +$2 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 12 $9 $0 -4%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $350 −$33 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Mentality Monster 25¢ $35 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout SELL Mentality Monster 25¢ $14 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 25¢ $125 1h
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) SELL InterActive Philippines 51¢ $81 1h
Game Handicap: YG (-1.5) vs InterActive Philippines (+1.5) BUY InterActive Philippines 51¢ $82 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 29¢ $3 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 29¢ $28 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 29¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 29¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner SELL Mentality Monster 29¢ $61 1h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 29¢ $145 2h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner BUY Mentality Monster 29¢ $145 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 46¢ $2 11h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 46¢ $227 11h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $230 11h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 49¢ $99 12h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 49¢ $3 12h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 49¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 49¢ $1 12h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 49¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 49¢ $30 12h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 49¢ $35 12h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 49¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 49¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 49¢ $303 12h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League SELL Oxuji Esports 49¢ $8 12h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 49¢ $245 14h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Oxuji Esports 49¢ $245 14h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 50¢ $206 20h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 50¢ $209 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $231.47 · official $231.47 (match) · 477 history records