Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:44:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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3C 0x3c23…2ecb crypto 482 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 184d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,078 (+5%) realized +$1,115 · open −$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate49%283W / 295L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,263now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 185d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$49
world 15% −$47
economics 2% −$75
weather 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-25.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -98.3% -98.4% 1% 1% -95.2%
≤30d 102 -94.7% -95.2% 4% 2% -65.7%
≤90d 102 -94.7% -95.2% 4% 2% -65.7%
all 578 -17.2% -25.1% 49% 22% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.1% 22% -15.4%
10% -32.3% 13% -23.5%
15% -38.8% 10% -30.9%
20% -44.8% 8% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$15 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$1,263
Realized+$1,115
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses283 / 295
Open positions2
Markets (closed)578 / 482
History coverage185d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 578 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $1,000 $1,038 +$38 (+4%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 46¢ 34¢ $300 $225 −$75 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 253 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 22, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $9 −$13 -137%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 22, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $0 −$2 -713%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$5 -114%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 22, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$3 -220%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$5 -205%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Dell say "Dividend" 3+ times during earnings call? Jun 19 $14 −$34 -247%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 22, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $0 −$7 -4547%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 19 $0 −$2 -9547%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$22 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -119%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 22, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $0 −$3 -730%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$2 -324%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 19 $14 −$18 -123%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 30, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$5 -121%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $0 −$2 -877%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 24, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 19 $0 −$6 -1773%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 16, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 15, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $59 −$59 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $1,000 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $66 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $300 21h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 41¢ $103 21h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 24¢ $431 21h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 49¢ $205 45h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $500 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $500 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 77¢ $200 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $300 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $0 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 161d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,262.94 · official $1,263.01 (match) · 3500 history records