Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
3C 0x3c1e…9514 sports 1296 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,742 (-3%) realized −$5,170 · open +$428
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%697W / 580L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$143per market
Trades / day29.3pace
Fees−$2,451est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2,341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$1,713
other 5% +$1,925
world 1% +$540
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 125 +9.4% -1.0% 55% 54% -9.3%
≤30d 596 +4.3% -5.6% 56% 55% -10.3%
≤90d 1277 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 54% -7.7%
all 1277 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 54% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 54% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 53% -16.5%
15% -23.2% 49% -24.6%
20% -30.8% 39% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$118 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$2,341
Realized−$5,170
Unrealized+$428
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses697 / 580
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$2,451
Open positions12
Markets (closed)1277 / 1296
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$143
Trades / day29.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 1277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Yes 51¢ 66¢ $328 $419 +$91 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 56¢ 90¢ $250 $400 +$150 (+60%)
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Yes 18¢ 32¢ $175 $312 +$137 (+78%)
Cap FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 45¢ 46¢ $248 $250 +$2 (+1%)
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch? Yes 7¢ 11¢ $150 $217 +$67 (+45%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 18¢ 10¢ $300 $158 −$142 (-47%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 51¢ 100¢ $75 $147 +$72 (+96%)
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Aurora Gaming 30¢ 80¢ $55 $147 +$92 (+167%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 61¢ 80¢ $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 13¢ 7¢ $108 $60 −$48 (-44%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $75 $56 −$19 (-25%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $76 −$76 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners AND Will Colombia Jun 18 $31 +$38 +124%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $51 +$65 +129%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$98 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 +$59 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $36 +$48 +134%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $122 +$164 +134%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $76 +$138 +180%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$69 +46%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $56 +$78 +140%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $76 −$55 -72%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$35 -34%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $76 +$107 +140%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $36 +$34 +94%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $77 +$26 +34%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $354 −$354 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$77 +76%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $304 +$2 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $76 −$11 -14%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $137 +$113 +83%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 15 $82 +$364 +444%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $153 +$264 +172%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $659 +$545 +83%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $152 +$138 +90%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $507 −$192 -38%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $152 +$142 +93%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $77 +$205 +268%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $254 −$254 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $254 −$254 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $254 −$254 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$84 +83%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $152 +$136 +89%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $153 +$242 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 61¢ $101 51m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $76 1h
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 30¢ $56 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $253 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Corners AND Will Colombia BUY 44¢ $31 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $51 15h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 38¢ $56 15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: Bot BUY 25¢ $51 16h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $76 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $56 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $102 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $36 22h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Por BUY 32¢ $56 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 23h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $56 39h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 42¢ $122 42h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $76 42h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 35¢ $76 42h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 15¢ $21 42h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $67 42h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $56 46h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $76 46h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 46h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $69 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 2d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $36 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 38¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,341.26 · official $2,286.00 · 3500 history records